After a chaotic first round that saw three Game 3s and several hours of thrilling basketball, the 2025 WNBA playoffs are headed to the semifinals. The No. 1 seed Minnesota Lynx were the only team to sweep the first round, though the No. 8 seed Golden State Valkyries didn’t make it easy. On Friday night, the No. 4 Phoenix Mercury extinguished any hope of a 2024 Finals rematch, dispatching the No. 5 seed New York Liberty and punching their ticket to Minnesota.

On the other side of the bracket, the No. 6 seed Indiana Fever shocked the No. 3 Atlanta Dream with a gutsy win in Game 3, while the No. 2 Las Vegas Aces outlasted the No. 7 Seattle Storm as they aim to return to the Finals.

Which teams will face off for the 2025 WNBA championship? Yahoo Sports’ Cassandra Negley and Maggie Hendricks make their picks and identify the X-factors below:

No. 1 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 4 Phoenix Mercury

Negley: Lynx in 4

Minnesota was the only team to sweep in the first round and gain another few days of rest, whereas Phoenix will tip Game 1 of the semifinals less than 48 hours after dispatching the reigning champs. The Lynx will pull from last year’s experience of losing together in the Finals against a team relying more on individual playoff minutes than collective bonding.

X-factor: How the game is called

The Mercury are, as detailed below, good at playing a tough, muck-it-up defensive game. And head coach Nate Tibbetts said early in the first-round series win over New York that he felt his squad had leveled up during these playoffs. They packed the paint and threw bodies at everyone at all moments. But there is a modicum of truth to Diana Taurasi’s claim that there are no great defenders, just professional foulers. If officials call a loose game and let a lot of the contact go, it favors the Mercury against a team that likes to play a pretty assist-heavy level of basketball. The Lynx can’t go looking for fouls to be called.

Hendricks: Lynx in 4

As New York just learned, Phoenix’s big three of Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally can frustrate their opponents with their hard-nosed style. But with Alanna Smith (this year’s co-Defensive Player of the Year) and Napheesa Collier (last year’s Defensive Player of the Year) on the roster, Minnesota will be able to handle a physical game. The key will be shooters like Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride contributing early.

X-factor: Minnesota and the art of zen

Phoenix is going to be physical against Minnesota. It’s how they won their series with New York, and it’s how they put together a 27-17 record in the regular season. Minnesota has more depth and experience, and they have the ability to win, but they need to stay calm when the Mercury start playing as hard as they do. They can’t let Phoenix — or the officials — get under their skin.

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No. 2 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever

Negley: Aces in 5

Becky Hammon is correct: The Fever haven’t seen the real Aces yet, or at least they haven’t seen the 17-game win streak Aces. But the Aces also haven’t seen the do-whatever-it-takes Fever team that runs on sheer resilience at times. It’s fair to ask how long that will last after surprising a lot of people by making it to the semifinals. I’ll give them a win in each location to force a Game 5.

X-factor: Lexie Hull and the Fever defense

The grit Lexie Hull showed in the first-round series win over Atlanta isn’t anything new to the Fever. She’s an all-hustle player who earns them extra possessions, and she’ll lead the charge for a team that finds the most success playing out of their defense. It’s how they won the Commissioner’s Cup, and how the Storm nearly upset the Aces in the first round.

The Aces are 0-7 when scoring below 70 points in the regular season, including an 81-54 loss to Indiana on July 3 and an 80-70 loss on July 24. Anything under the 80-point mark is dubious. If they can limit the duo of A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young (plus the always clutch Chelsea Gray in the fourth quarter), the Fever will have a chance.

More on the WNBA playoffs

Despite Seattle Storm’s first-round playoff exit, rookie Dominique Malonga showed why ‘she’s ready’ for WNBA spotlight

Questions linger after New York Liberty’s championship repeat quest ends in disappointment

The WNBA semifinalists we’d like to see get a ring, from Napheesa Collier to Kelsey Mitchell

Hendricks: Aces in 4

One thing the Aces have figured out under Becky Hammon is peaking at the right time. And while this series will be intriguing for many reasons, it’ll be particularly fun to watch this matchup of two of the best coaches in the game. Keep an eye out for a chess match between Hammon and Stephanie White.

X-factor: NaLyssa Smith staying out of foul trouble

Indiana’s Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard have been at the core of the Fever’s postseason success. Boston earned a double-double with 12 rebounds and 10 points in the Game 3 win over Atlanta, while Howard scored 12 points and grabbed 6 rebounds. For Las Vegas to win, they will need to own the paint. A’ja Wilson might be a superwoman, but she will need help stopping Boston and Howard. NaLyssa Smith has proven to be a key part of the Aces’ success, but she can’t contribute if she’s not on the floor. She had five fouls in the Aces’ Game 3 win over Seattle and played 18 minutes, well below her average of 22 minutes per game.