The Toronto Blue Jays risk losing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after failing to secure a contract extension before the deadline. With MLB free agency looming, doubts grow over the team’s ability to retain their star.

© Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays celebrates toward his dugout after hitting a solo home run during the ninth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on September 19, 2024 in Arlington, Texas.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s future in Toronto remains uncertain as the Blue Jays face the looming possibility of losing their star first baseman after the 2025 season. Efforts to negotiate a contract extension fell through before Tuesday’s deadline, creating a cloud of uncertainty around the Canadian MLB franchise.

The breakdown in talks and the apparent strain in Guerrero Jr.’s relationship with the organization paint a grim picture, making free agency the most likely outcome. This situation raises serious concerns about the Blue Jays‘ ability to manage talent and retain their cornerstone players.

The team’s front office has faced harsh criticism for its handling of Guerrero Jr.’s contract negotiations—missteps that could prove costly. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic dissected Toronto’s failure to secure the young Dominican slugger, pointing out several missed opportunities to lock him into a long-term deal.

“The Jays planned to manipulate Guerrero’s service time at the outset of his career, took him to a salary arbitration hearing in 2024, and over the years made him a series of extension offers he deemed insufficient.

Those offers, according to a source briefed on Guerrero’s history with the club, failed to acknowledge shifting dynamics in the market. By reacting more promptly to those dynamics, the Jays likely could have locked up Guerrero years ago for much less than he sought in recent weeks,” Rosenthal wrote.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays makes a defensive play against the St. Louis Cardinals during the seventh inning at Rogers Centre on September 13, 2024 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/Getty Images)

The resurgence of Guerrero Jr.

It’s understandable why the Blue Jays hesitated to commit to a long-term deal for Guerrero Jr. His production dipped between the 2022 and 2023 seasons, leading to concerns about whether he could sustain elite performance—especially given his physical profile.

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However, at just 25 years old, it was reasonable to expect a resurgence, which is exactly what happened in 2024. Guerrero posted an impressive 5.5 WAR over 159 games, according to Fangraphs, reestablishing himself as a premier talent.

Uncertain future for the Blue Jays

All signs point to the Blue Jays missing out on Guerrero Jr.’s prime years beyond 2025. His potential departure would leave a massive void, both on the field and among fans, while further intensifying doubts about the organization’s ability to construct a sustainable, championship-caliber MLB team.