As the search for missing Nova Scotia children Lilly and Jack Sullivan stretches into its fourth week, new insights are emerging from child safety experts and analysts who are weighing in on the likely scenarios, critical timeframes, and challenges facing search teams. The siblings, aged six and four, vanished on May 2 from their rural property on Gairloch Road in Landsdowne Station, Pictou County. With no confirmed sightings since that morning, investigators are turning to behavioral experts and safety analysts for deeper guidance.

John Kerrigan, a nationally recognized safety analyst and former RCMP child protection consultant, spoke candidly about the Sullivan case in an exclusive interview with local media. “We are now in a very difficult phase of the search,” he said. “The first 48 hours are always the most critical in child disappearances, especially in wilderness areas. But that doesn’t mean hope is lost — it simply means the strategy must adapt.”

Kerrigan, who has over 30 years of experience in wilderness safety and child abduction investigations, stressed the importance of not discounting any possibility. “It’s easy to focus on one theory — in this case, the children wandering off into the woods — but we always have to keep the door open to other explanations, including intentional abduction or even accidental concealment by a passerby who may not fully understand the situation.”

The Sullivan children were last seen playing in their yard just before 10 a.m. Their mother, Sarah, told investigators she left them alone for less than five minutes to retrieve a phone charger and returned to find both children missing. Since then, search crews have combed over 50 square kilometers of dense forest, assisted by helicopters, drones, tracking dogs, and hundreds of trained volunteers.

According to Kerrigan, children Lilly and Jack’s age often behave unpredictably in unfamiliar or frightening environments. “They may hide from rescuers, especially if they feel lost or scared,” he explained. “They may not respond to their names being called. They might crawl into a log, a ditch, or under dense brush where they feel protected.”

He also noted that young children can travel surprising distances in a short amount of time, particularly when in a state of confusion or distress. “Most people assume a four-year-old won’t walk far, but that’s not always true,” he said. “We’ve seen cases where kids cover several kilometers in a matter of hours — often not in a straight line, but in spirals or loops.”

Adding to the complexity of the Sullivan case is the discovery of a few personal items near a logging trail within the first few days of the search: a juice box, a red fleece jacket, and a unicorn-themed sock, all later confirmed to belong to Lilly or Jack. While those items offered initial clues and hope, no further belongings have been found since, and the trail of physical evidence has gone cold.

Kerrigan addressed this point directly. “The lack of continued evidence doesn’t mean they’re not out there,” he said. “It could mean they were picked up. It could also mean they found a place to shelter and haven’t moved far. Or it could mean we’re searching in the wrong direction. In cases like this, it’s essential that search parameters are re-evaluated every few days.”

He also emphasized the role of community in both aiding the search and supporting the family. “One of the strongest indicators for recovery in missing children cases is sustained public engagement,” he said. “The moment the media stops talking about the case or the public assumes the worst, the search can lose momentum. That’s why visibility is so important — the flyers, the news stories, the social media shares. They keep the case alive in the public eye and can generate vital leads.”

Investigators have not ruled out the possibility of abduction. Surveillance footage from nearby roads is being analyzed, and RCMP have publicly asked for the driver of a white pickup truck seen in the area around the time of the disappearance to come forward. Kerrigan was cautious but direct on this point. “Statistically, stranger abductions are rare — but they do happen. If someone did take these children, time becomes even more critical.”

He also addressed the emotional toll such events take on families. “The psychological trauma experienced by the parents is immense,” he said. “They’re living in a constant state of uncertainty — grieving, hoping, and searching all at once. Every hour brings new fear. Families in this situation need not only public support, but professional mental health care, because the stress is unlike anything else.”

For law enforcement, Kerrigan urged a blend of tactical persistence and openness to unconventional strategies. “Bring in fresh teams who haven’t seen the terrain yet. Review every hour of nearby dashcam footage. Re-interview witnesses with updated questions. Use scent articles and revisit prior search areas with new dogs. Cases have been solved because someone took a second look at what others missed.”

As of now, the RCMP have not issued any updates suggesting a major break in the case. The official line remains: all leads are being followed, and the investigation remains active and ongoing. The Sullivan family has continued to participate in public appeals, with both parents appearing in several interviews to thank volunteers and urge anyone with information to come forward.

Kerrigan ended his commentary on a note of cautious hope. “I’ve worked cases where children were found alive after weeks — in sheds, in outbuildings, even in root cellars or with well-meaning strangers. It’s rare, but it’s not impossible. And that’s why no one should give up.”

The search continues, with law enforcement urging residents to remain alert, check their properties, and report anything out of the ordinary. A tip line remains open, and a reward fund — now totaling over $40,000 — is in place for any information leading to the safe return of Lilly and Jack.

As the hours and days continue to pass, the resolve of the Sullivan family, search teams, and local community remains steadfast. While the path forward is filled with uncertainty, hope continues to burn — kept alive by the enduring belief that somewhere, Lilly and Jack are waiting to be found.