In the high-stakes world of NHL goaltending, few stories have been as polarizing as that of Jack Campbell. Once hailed as the answer to the Edmonton Oilers’ playoff prayers, Campbell’s journey from celebrated free agent signing to buy-out casualty has become a cautionary tale for teams chasing quick fixes in net.

As new reports surface questioning the analytics behind his acquisition, the debate over Campbell’s true value—and the Oilers’ decision-making process—has reignited among fans and insiders alike. With the goalie’s recent struggles fresh in memory and his future in the league uncertain, the saga of Jack Campbell serves as a stark reminder of how quickly fortunes can change in professional hockey, and how much rides on the razor-thin margin between hope and heartbreak.

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A new report from Oilers analyst Jason Gregor claiming that the team never would’ve signed Campbell if they used analytics is riling up the fanbase.

In fact, Gregor’s report further claimed that Jack Campbell’s style of play was never going to be successful behind the system Edmonton plays.

NHL analyst argues Jack Campbell contract was always going to fail

It’s true that Jack Campbell’s statistics are an enigma, as some suggest he’s a quality starter, while others clearly fall well below the league average. But the Oilers didn’t just need analytics to know that the Campbell deal was bad from Day 1.

In the 2021-22 season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Campbell posted a record of 31 wins, 9 losses and 6 ot losses11 over 47 starts, with a 2.64 GAA and .914 SV%, making him one of the league’s top goalies that season. He even set a Leafs’ franchise record for most wins at the start of a season.

The Edmonton Oilers then signed Jack Campbell as a free agent on July 1, 2022, a 5-year deal worth $25M, and an AAV of $5M, a sizeable increase from the $1.65M per year the Leafs had paid him.

Edmonton had high expectations for Jack Campbell, who had considered the affable goalie as their future, and the goalie that would take them to the Stanley Cup Finals. Except, instead of excelling in net, Campbell’s game unraveled; he played without confidence, and finally folded under the pressure of a Stanley Cup-starved market.

The Oilers would eventually turn to Stuart Skinner, who overtook Jack Campbell in goal. The club bought-out the shaky goaltender’s contract, after having only played 5 games in 2023-24, and winning just one, posting a 4.50 GAA and a .873 GAA, well below the league-average.

It was as if Jack Campbell were two different goalies, and displayed long bouts of insecurity in the crease, and uncertainty about his game, both of which contributed to his lack of mental strength, an area that often differentiates the top goalies from the pretenders, despite equal ability and skills.

Following the Oilers’ buy-out, Jack Campbell signed a one-year contract with the Detroit Red Wings on July 1, 2024, and is now a free agent at the age of 33.

Whether the unsigned UFA can make another comeback remains to be seen. Campbell has had to bounce back several times over the years, signing with new teams and performing moderately well. Except, the last two seasons have been deplorable, and it appears as though he may have reached the end of his NHL career.

Yet, goalies are a peculiar breed and often behave contrary to the norm. Perhaps Jack Campbell will find his game again and make yet another comeback; but he will first need to be signed, and then the work to get back into form will begin. Good luck Jack.