In a stunning twist that has sent shockwaves across the NHL, the New York Islanders have defied the odds and landed the coveted first overall pick in the upcoming draft. With just a 3.5% chance heading into the lottery, the Islanders’ unexpected stroke of luck has instantly changed the landscape of their franchise—and potentially, the fate of several star players. As the organization stands at a crossroads, facing the end of the Lou Lamoriello era and the looming need for a full-scale rebuild, all eyes are now on how the front office will leverage this rare opportunity.

Rumors are swirling more intensely than ever, and the name at the center of it all is Noah Dobson. The talented young defenseman, set to become a restricted free agent, suddenly finds himself the subject of trade speculation as the Islanders contemplate their next moves. With Matthew Schaefer emerging as a likely top pick and the team’s prospect pool in dire need of rejuvenation, the stage is set for dramatic changes. Meanwhile, the Montreal Canadiens—always on the lookout for a cornerstone defenseman—are reportedly watching the situation closely, ready to make a bold move if the opportunity arises.

Photo credit: Russell LaBounty-Imagn Images

To everyone’s surprise, the New York Islanders secured the first overall pick at the upcoming NHL Draft. Their odds were only 3.5% before the lottery, showing that sometimes sinking in the standings doesn’t guarantee a good pick.

With this selection, the team’s future GM in the suburbs of the Big Apple could certainly get his hands on the talented left-handed defenseman Matthew Schaefer.

It would be an excellent piece to start a rebuild that is all but inevitable for the Islanders.

Indeed, with the departure of Lou Lamoriello, it is the perfect time to start fresh, as the club is aging and lacks young talent in its prospect pool.

Matthew Schaefer to replace Noah Dobson?

One of the perfect players to replenish their bank of picks and young players is undoubtedly Noah Dobson.

It’s no wonder that many, including Grant McCagg, believe he will be traded sooner rather than later.

“The Islanders have the first overall pick.

That could accelerate the trade of Dobson if the Islanders are considering it.”

Grant McCagg

Dobson, who will become a restricted free agent on July 1st, will surely demand a significant salary raise.

Even though the Islanders could afford to pay him his true value, keeping him would be counterproductive, especially if they decide to rebuild.

The perfect defenseman for the Montreal Canadiens

This is where Kent Hughes and the Montreal Canadiens could come into play.

However, the price will be high, and the local GM would have no choice but to sacrifice one of his organization’s big names.

If you don’t want to involve Caufield or Suzuki, it would likely come down to Juraj Slafkovsky.

Unless the veteran GM is tempted to start the conversation with a David Reinbacher.

Another very interesting option is emerging to acquire Dobson.

In recent months, prospect specialist Simon “Snake” Boisvert suggested that Kent Hughes should submit an offer sheet to Dobson.

According to him, the Canadiens have everything to gain by acquiring the defenseman. Especially since they have a good chance of making the playoffs again for the next couple of years.

Here’s what the Canadiens would have to give up to the Islanders if they refused to match the offer:

1st-round pick (2026)

1st-round pick (2027)

2nd-round pick (2026)

3rd-round pick (2026)

The advantage here is that the first-round pick would be in 2026, not 2025.

The chances of seeing the Canadiens stuck at the bottom of the standings next season are therefore slim, which reduces the risk of the offer sheet.