The NHL offseason is always ripe with speculation, but this year, the chatter is reaching a fever pitch as two of the league’s brightest superstars find themselves at the center of contract drama.

With Edmonton Oilers phenom Connor McDavid reportedly on the verge of negotiating a record-shattering new deal, the ripple effects are already being felt across the league—especially in Toronto, where the future of Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews is inextricably linked to McDavid’s next move.

As insiders like David Pagnotta hint at astronomical figures that could redefine the salary landscape, front offices are scrambling to anticipate the fallout.

The possibility of McDavid testing free agency, or re-signing for an unprecedented sum, has sent shockwaves through both fanbases and management circles alike.

For the Maple Leafs, the stakes couldn’t be higher; not only must they prepare for the financial implications of retaining their own franchise player, but they also face the daunting prospect of competing in a market that could soon be dictated by McDavid’s historic contract.

With so much uncertainty swirling, one thing is clear: the decisions made in the coming months will shape the destiny of these storied franchises for years to come.

Photo credit: Hockey Patrol

David Pagnotta was on TSN recently and predicted Connor McDavid’s next deal is going to be astronomical, which is going to give the Maple Leafs lots to think about.

It’s going to be a focal point all season, whether or not Connor McDavid is going to re-sign with the Edmonton Oilers or end up testing free agency in a star-studded class that could see record-breaking contracts.

Speaking of, McDavid’s next deal regardless of where it is, is going to be extravagant to say the very least. Teams like the Maple Leafs are expected to heavily pursue the NHL’s best player, though it’s going to come at a huge hit.

According to David Pagnotta, who appeared on TSN Montreal 690, that contract is going to reach levels unseen and could reach between $16-17M:

A 4-5 year deal at $16-17M AAV sounds about right for Connor McDavid in Edmonton.

It’s not too shocking, he’s the league’s top player and one of the greatest ever already. While he hasn’t won the Cup just yet, he’s won everything else under the sun, and has already cemented himself as Hall of Famer with a decade still to go.

That contract would crush his teammate, Leon Draisaitl’s extension which sits at $14-million, and it would set forth a chain of events that would change the landscape of the NHL.

What Connor McDavid’s Deal Means for Auston Matthews’ Next Contract

But what does this mean for Auston Matthews? Although he is going into year two of his four-year extension, he’s going to get paid in due time and if the Maple Leafs are going to extend him; they’ll have a tough precedent to surpass.

If McDavid signs for $17-million at five years, that’s $85-million overall; a staggering salary amount that’s indicative of his production throughout his career. Though Matthews has also put in quite the work, and remains the closest to potentially beating Alex Ovechkin’s goal record if things go well.

That deserves a raise, and while he makes $13.25-million, he could end up making at least $15-million a season, and over the same span is coming out to $75-million; only $10M less than a McDavid deal, which some could see as an overpayment as well.

Could McDavid’s Contract Force the Maple Leafs Into Tough Roster Decisions?

So if Toronto is going to pay heavily to keep their captain, they need to make sure they have enough room. It’s lucky for them they can dump off some roster pieces but they need to make sure they prepare.

Calle Jarnkrok, Bobby McMann, Scott Laughton, Anthony Stolarz and Matt Benning are all UFA’s and more than likely not returning.

In the case of Stolarz, McMann and potentially Laughton; they all have a spot on the team and could warrant an extension, but there are other ways the Leafs can replace them either internally or externally.

They also need to make sure David Kampf, Max Domi, and maybe even Brandon Carlo are off the team too, and while they may not get the greatest returns, it’s better than paying them especially if they want to commit long-term to Matthews.

In the 2026-27 season, the Maple Leafs have a potential $24-million to work with just based off free agents, and if you factor in the other moves it could push it towards $30-milllion.

Is that enough to sign Matthews? Perhaps he’ll take the John Tavares route and be a Leaf for the rest of his career.

Or, he could go the way of Mitch Marner and play hardball before leaving the team shorthanded once again.