It is Monday morning, the 16th of June. It’s a few days since I took this channel to Canada and the case of missing six-year-old Lily and her four-year-old brother Jack Sullivan, who have been missing now since the 2nd of May. They were reported missing just before 10:00 a.m. on that day by their mother, Malia Brooks Murray.

You’ll know the details if you’ve been following this case from the beginning. The day after, May the 3rd, Malia did an interview with the media. Shortly thereafter—later that very same day—she left. She left with her mother and her baby, the baby that she shared with Lily and Jack’s stepfather, Daniel Martell.

Daniel is now not allowed to see his baby. In a recent interview, he used the word kids in the plural. So, I assume he’s not allowed to see his other two biological children either. He has a son and a daughter from a previous relationship.

So, Daniel is there in the trailer that he shared with Malia and Lily, Jack, and the baby. Busy trailer. He’s now there on his own. Now, his mother lives in the RV—stroke, whatever that thing is—on the same property. So, he’s not totally, totally, totally alone, but it’s a weird, weird situation.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a situation where the day after your children go missing, the biological mother leaves. It’s so bizarre. She’s just not speaking. She’s lawyered up. It seems that her mother is in control of things.

What’s gone on there, I have no idea. I don’t blame people for thinking that this is some kind of setup. But my thoughts have always been that if Malia wanted to leave—like, wanted to leave Daniel and take the kids with her—she would just leave. ‘Cause Lily and Jack are not Daniel’s kids. She’d just leave. She’d just get someone to pick her up, and she’d just go. She wouldn’t need to engineer a situation to have her children disappear, would she?

Now, there was a rumor going around yesterday that Lily and Jack have been found deceased. That’s not true. At least, there’s nothing at all whatsoever in the media to indicate that that’s true. So, I don’t know where that rumor started, but it’s not true.

In the interest of keeping Lil and Jack’s names out there, let’s contemplate the possibility that this is now a criminal investigation. If this is not a criminal investigation now, I’d be totally surprised.

Those were the words of Jim Hoskins, a retired Halifax Regional Police officer. So, he used to work in Nova Scotia and is a former Major Crimes Staff Sergeant—not working on the case—but he says the actions from the RCMP and the other police agencies involved in Lily and Jack’s disappearance have led him to the conclusion that this is now a criminal investigation.

Now, we’ve heard that the Major Crimes Unit and a bunch of different agencies within the RCMP are looking at this case. The Truth Unit is involved. There have been polygraphs issued. We don’t know the results of those polygraphs. Daniel has intimated that he passed, but we don’t know the results of any of those polygraphs.

But the Major Crimes Unit has been involved since May the 3rd. Apparently, that is standard practice in missing children’s investigations in Canada. So, there’s nothing unusual about it.

But I think this Jim Hoskins guy is right. I think they are considering this a criminal investigation. I do.

Eight square kilometers have been searched. Now look, it’s heavily wooded in some areas, so I understand that people get missed. Two little kids could easily get missed.

Do I think it’s criminal? I think the investigation is assuming that it is. But whether the case is actually, factually criminal—I don’t know.

I’ve said from the outset that this case is unusual. Really unusual. It concerns me that there was no scent at all found by the dogs, other than on the driveway. That really concerns me. That’s the thing I think that concerns me the most.

Why, if Lily and Jack wandered off into the woods—given that the dogs were on the ground within 24 hours—why is there no scent? That’s the thing that gets me. It really is.

Is there a reason for it? Possibly. If Lily and Jack didn’t wander off to the back or to the sides into the woods, and they went the front way and walked down the road and then went into the woods, a dog could possibly lose the scent on the road. It’s been said many, many times that when a surface changes from natural to artificial, dogs tend to lose a scent.

So, it could be that—but I don’t know, guys. I’ve had a bad feeling about this from the beginning.

Jim Hoskins says they’re looking at this with some criminal aspects as well—they just haven’t said so.

In my personal experience, if this is not a criminal investigation now, I’d be totally surprised.

And then we know from last Wednesday there was an update by the RCMP. They said finding out what happened to Lily and Jack may take longer than they had hoped.

Police revealed that several national agencies, including the National Center for Missing Persons and the Canadian Center for Child Protection, have joined the investigation.

“We’re assessing, evaluating, and analyzing a significant volume of information from a variety of sources,” said Corporal Sandy Mataroo, investigation lead, Northeast Nova RCMP Major Crimes Unit. “We have a very coordinated and deliberate approach to make certain all information is meticulously scrutinized, prioritized, and actions taken to ensure nothing is missed.”

Police also revealed they have conducted interviews with 54 people and administered polygraph tests to some of the individuals. Daniel previously told Global News he had offered to take a polygraph and that it had been administered.

If they give him polygraphs, then they want to see if people’s statements are truthful—as far as they can interpret it from a polygraph.

But to me, it’s a criminal investigation. That’s how I interpret this right now.

Hoskins said they’ll go on the balance of probabilities. Based on the area that we fully searched with a lot of people, we can’t find any evidence—be it a backpack, a shoe, or whatever. We can’t find the kids. If you can’t find them, then somebody has to say, “Enough is enough right now for searching those areas.”

So now we move to where there’s only one other option: a nefarious take to this. In other words, a criminal-type thing. That’s only my personal opinion.

Tom Morello, a forensic consultant and lecturer at the University of Maryland’s Criminology Department, says it’s important to understand how a polygraph test works and why it might be used.

“I need you to understand that the polygraph is not a lie detector. It doesn’t detect lies. It simply detects when a person responds with their sympathetic nervous system to relevant questions,” he points out.

Police departments will use polygraphs as an investigative tool, but it isn’t a foolproof way to find who’s guilty.

“If somebody is successful in the test, then—not that they’re being eliminated—but they’ll spend more time on people that are not successful.”

Not passing the test doesn’t mean you’re guilty or you’re involved. It simply means that there’s some issue there—maybe some knowledge. Guilty knowledge. Or it could be that you’re feeling guilty. Like in the case of Michael Vaughn from Fruitland, Idaho. His dad, Tyler, failed the polygraph. He felt so guilty because Michael disappeared on his watch.

Michael got out of the house on his watch. Tyler was busy changing the baby’s diaper, and Michael walked out of the house. He was only gone a few minutes before Tyler realized, but unfortunately, by that time, he’d been abducted by monsters in the neighborhood—and his body has never been found. Four suspects in that case.

So, it can happen in the blink of an eye, in a quiet suburban neighborhood.

Has it happened in this case? Potentially, it has. But given the rural nature of this location, I think it’s maybe not very likely that they’ve just been picked up by a random stranger. But it’s absolutely possible.

And I’ve said previously that I think the RCMP dropped the ball by not asking the public sooner for dashcam footage and trail cam footage. They should have asked that from the outset, but it took them till the end of May to do that.

He adds that if the police have a suspect, they may also use the polygraph test as a psychological tool to draw out a confession.

“I’ve done about 1,200 polygraph tests where I was an examiner for the federal government back here in the United States. And there were times—before I even put the attachments on the person—the person admitted things,” he said.

“Oh dear, that’s Chris Watts.”

So, you create this psychological environment for them to be truthful and honest—and sometimes, it works.

As a police officer who has taken part in similar investigations in the past, including searches for children, Hoskins says he knows that there’s a lot of behind-the-scenes work going on right now.

“They’re not sitting around in a nice cool air-conditioned boardroom all day talking about this and strategizing. They’re out there. They’re out there, and the only way they’re going to see or get results in this is to be out there talking to people, looking at videos, looking at topography and what have you, and so on. They’re not in offices doing this by a laptop. Let’s put it that way.”

RCMP have said searches of the property where children went missing have included every aspect of the home, grounds, outbuildings, nearby septic systems, wells, mine shafts, and culverts.

Hoskins says investigations will be going on the balance of probabilities and consider the fact that multiple searches of the heavily wooded areas around the home have not turned up any evidence.

More than 160 search and rescue volunteers have scoured through the densely wooded area surrounding the children’s home—but only a small boot print was found.

Police continue to refer to the case as a missing persons investigation. They’re covering it all—everything they can—and you only do that in depth when there’s a criminal investigation with major crime on scene.

They’re not there just because they’re major crime. They’re there to do their major crime work.

So, let me know what you think in the comments below.

Do you think this is a criminal investigation?
Do you think RCMP know stuff they’re not telling us?
Do you think this case will be solved?
Do you think Lily and Jack will ever come home?