CRIME now suspected???  NEW change of direction in Lilly & Jack Sullivan search
It is Friday morning, the 23rd of May.

I am continuing the coverage of the case of missing six-year-old Lily and four-year-old Jack Sullivan, who were reported missing around 10:00 a.m. on the 2nd of May from their home in Lanstown Station, Pictou County, Nova Scotia, Canada. A number of people sent me this link to a CBC article, which contains a news piece about a neighbor who has been asked to provide trail cam footage. Now, to me, she doesn’t exactly fit the definition of a “neighbor” because she’s about three miles away. But, I guess if you live in a very sparsely populated area, three miles is considered a neighbor.

I’ll talk through what this could potentially mean for the investigation. Clearly, there are new tactics being used here, and it’s kind of worrying. Let’s dive in.

Trail Cam Footage and Investigative Tactics

Melissa Scott’s trail cameras might contain clues about the disappearance of Lily and Jack Sullivan. RCMP (Royal Canadian Mounted Police) asked her for days of footage as the investigation into the missing children approaches the three-week mark. “It’s scary, especially not knowing what happened,” Scott said. “We definitely keep our kids a little closer to home now.”

The four- and six-year-olds were reported missing from their home on May 2nd, launching a massive search of the woods surrounding the property. No trace has been found, and RCMP haven’t ruled out the case being suspicious.

This is some of the footage that Scott provided to the police. She says RCMP major crimes officers came to her home this week asking for everything on her seven cameras, starting from April 27th—five days before the children were reported missing. Two of Scott’s neighbors were also asked to provide footage to RCMP. The officers also inquired about her family’s vehicles to rule out local traffic in the footage.

It seems like they might be wondering if the children went missing earlier, or if someone who isn’t local was around beforehand. The road between Scott’s property and the Sullivan home is the most direct path, and it’s about an 18-minute drive down rough dirt roads, straight through the woods, roughly 5 kilometers. Scott mentioned that she was very happy to see them canvassing further and looking at trail cam footage. She said the officers responded, saying they “probably should have been around earlier.”

RCMP would not answer CBC’s questions, including why they are seeking trail camera footage from before the disappearance, or why they are identifying local vehicles.

Map and Search Areas

There are a couple of concerning things here. Most importantly, just how far out they are going. I’ll show you the map in a moment to give you some context and explain why they might be using this as a new outer limit. There’s a shift in tactics, and I believe there’s a reason behind it.

So, we know that they did an extensive 6-day search through 5.5 kilometers of mostly dense woods. 5.5 kilometers equates to 3.4 square miles, which is this inner circle here. Now, we’ve got this “donut shape” on the map, with the center point being here at their home. This is a one-mile radius.

The search maps shown at the May 7th press conference leaned more westward, kind of like an egg shape rather than a perfect circle. But Glengary Station is all the way out here. So this is a 3-mile radius, and Scott’s property is fairly large. So if they’re conducting a 3-mile radius search, they should have done this much earlier. But it shows that there’s been a change in approach. I think there’s a reason why they chose this as the outer perimeter. If this is indeed the radius they’re using, then there’s likely something significant behind it.

They only approached her on May 20th, so they should’ve done this sooner. I think there’s a reason they didn’t. The area they are focusing on seems to be around a 3-mile radius from the children’s home.

The Timeframe and Potential Clues

This part of the investigation worries me. They’re looking at footage from April 27th. Lily and Jack were seen at school on the 28th and 29th—the Monday and Tuesday. That’s according to the bus driver, who said the last time he saw them was on Tuesday afternoon. But is it possible the bus driver was mistaken, and they weren’t at school that entire week? Could Lily and Jack have been missing since Sunday night, Monday, or Tuesday? It’s an interesting timeframe they’re investigating.

This also makes me think of the case of little Cody Bixby. Do you remember him? He was from Virginia. His father, Cory Bixby, reported him missing, claiming Cody had just walked out of the house in the middle of the night. But the authorities didn’t believe him from the beginning. They took him in for questioning, and he never came out. He has since been convicted of Cody’s murder and has given various confessions.

During the investigation, it was revealed that Cody had actually been missing for months prior to being reported, and they began collecting camera footage from as far back as June of the previous year. This is similar to what’s happening here—it makes me wonder if they believe Lily and Jack may have been missing for longer than originally thought, which could then raise questions about the parents.

The fact that they want footage from five days prior is unsettling. It raises questions: Were Lily and Jack possibly abducted? Or was something else going on?

Foul Play or Accidental Disappearance?

The fact that RCMP is now asking about vehicles and looking for footage from before the disappearance suggests they may be considering the possibility of an abduction or foul play. When investigators are this thorough, it usually means they’re exploring every possibility.

It’s also worth noting that the dogs were not able to pick up any scent during the search. It’s hard to know exactly how often search dogs fail, but it’s very concerning that not a single dog caught a scent in this case. Could this mean the children were never in the area? Or was it just that the dogs missed them for some reason? The fact that no scent was found worries me deeply.

The Importance of Search Data

I’ve also been looking at some data provided by Robert Costa, who has a book on “Lost Person Behavior” and an app for search and rescue. Based on the type of terrain where Lily and Jack would have gone missing, Costa’s app offers some insight into how far people typically wander after going missing. For children aged 4-6, about 75% of them are found within a 1.2-mile radius of where they were last seen. But to find 95% of children in these circumstances, search teams would need to extend their search to 6.6 kilometers—around 4 miles.

This could explain why the RCMP is now looking beyond the immediate area around the Sullivan home. They may be extending their search radius, possibly in response to new theories about where the children might be.

Conclusion and Open Questions

Ultimately, the fact that the RCMP is seeking footage and investigating vehicles means they are taking a more thorough approach now, but it also raises a lot of questions. Could Lily and Jack have wandered farther than initially thought? Could they have been abducted or taken somewhere else? The lack of scent picked up by the dogs and the request for footage from several days prior to their disappearance seems to suggest that authorities are rethinking their initial theories.