After a stunning overtime win in Game 2, the Phoenix Mercury have a chance to swing the pendulum against the Minnesota Lynx in Phoenix.

Phoenix’s biggest weapon is its battle-tested core. Even in a transitional season, the presence of veterans like Diana Taurasi gives the Mercury an edge in high-pressure moments. Taurasi, often referred to as the “White Mamba,” thrives on the playoff stage, and her ability to hit clutch shots can swing momentum in a heartbeat. Alongside her, Brittney Griner remains a game-changer in the paint. Her rim protection and interior scoring can neutralize some of the Lynx’s strengths, particularly when Phoenix controls the tempo.

The Mercury also have an X-factor in their home court. PHX Arena has long been one of the most intimidating venues in the WNBA, with a fan base that rallies around its team in the postseason. The energy in the building can elevate role players and create pressure for opposing squads. In a best-of-five series, stealing one road game and defending home turf is often the recipe for an upset, and Phoenix has the tools to make that happen.

“We’re confident. We’re confident in us and we’ve been battling all season,” Satou Sabally said. “You can’t give up a basketball game if you’re down whatever. I believed at halftime, and that’s what we did.”

All it took was the Mercury erasing a 20-point deficit in the third quarter on the road and trusting in their bench. Sami Whitcomb played some major minutes, including hitting the second-chance 3-point shot to go to overtime. Kathryn Westbeld exploited the Lynx’s mistakes in the third quarter and was scoring in transition.

Five of the Lynx’s 18 turnovers came in the third quarter and three were in OT. The Lynx were whistled for a five-second violation with 47 seconds left in regulation and had a slight 3-point lead before the Mercury sent it to overtime.

“Phoenix did a good job coming out aggressive, but I think we beat ourselves,” Lynx forward Napheesa Collier said. “Unforced turnovers, not taking care of the ball when they were pressuring us. It’s definitely frustrating, but it’s a series. A long series. We’re tied now, we’ve got to go to Phoenix and take care of business.”

Much like in the first-round series, the Mercury proved again that the first game isn’t the indicator of how the series will go. The Mercury had several areas to fix from both Game 1s and did so in the following game.

The improvements in the semifinals took a little longer, but once the second half hit, the Mercury were operating much better with more players sharing the ball.

Kahleah Copper carried the team in the second half of Game 1 against the Lynx, but got more help when she went down in the third quarter of Game 2.

Copper rolled her right ankle when she collided with Westbeld in the closing seconds of the third quarter and was limping visibly. She immediately headed back to the locker room when the quarter ended, but returned later on. Her corner 3 with 1:47 left in overtime put the Mercury up 85-79 and in the next play, she stripped the ball from Collier.

The shocking win against the Lynx could be the tipping point of the series, or it could be a wake-up call for the Lynx.

The Lynx have been one of the most defensively sound teams in the WNBA and rarely let teams take advantage of them. Head coach Cheryl Reeve is also known for figuring out her opponents and making the right adjustments to win.

Since the loss, the Lynx will likely have figured out what went wrong, and it will come out with a new attack. But the Mercury have proven their resilience and could counter.

The Phoenix Mercury enter the WNBA semifinals as underdogs, but their clash with the Minnesota Lynx at PHX Arena carries the potential for a shock result that could tilt the balance of the series. While Minnesota boasts one of the most consistent and balanced rosters in the league, Phoenix’s combination of veteran leadership, playoff experience, and home-court advantage could provide the spark for an upset.

At first glance, the Lynx appear to have the upper hand. They finished the regular season strong, led by the All-Star duo of Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride, and their depth has been a defining factor all year. Their defensive discipline and offensive balance make them one of the toughest teams to break down, and many analysts have pegged them as favorites to advance to the WNBA Finals. But history shows that in the postseason, the Mercury are never a team to underestimate.

For the Mercury to shock Minnesota, execution will be critical. They need to limit turnovers against the Lynx’s disciplined defense and find ways to exploit mismatches. Griner’s size advantage could be decisive, especially if she draws double-teams that free up Phoenix’s shooters. Sophie Cunningham’s perimeter shooting and Kahleah Copper’s slashing ability could provide the offensive balance needed to complement the star power of Taurasi and Griner.

Defensively, Phoenix must slow down Collier, who has been the heartbeat of Minnesota’s offense. If they can contain her scoring while making McBride work for her shots, they can disrupt the Lynx’s rhythm. Transition defense will also be vital, as Minnesota thrives on pushing the pace after stops. The Mercury will need to control the boards, minimize second-chance points, and grind the game into a half-court battle where their veterans can dictate the tempo.

Psychologically, Phoenix carries the advantage of having little to lose. As underdogs, the pressure falls on Minnesota to live up to expectations, while the Mercury can play with freedom. That dynamic can often fuel a surprise performance, especially in a Game 1 at home where an upset can flip the narrative of the series.

In the end, the Mercury’s chances hinge on their stars delivering and their role players stepping up in key moments. If Taurasi and Griner can impose their will while Copper and Cunningham provide reliable scoring support, Phoenix has more than a puncher’s chance. The Lynx may be deeper and more consistent, but the Mercury’s playoff pedigree and home-court firepower make them dangerous.

A victory in PHX Arena wouldn’t just be a statement — it would put Minnesota on notice that Phoenix is capable of rewriting the script. In playoff basketball, momentum is everything, and if the Mercury can shock the Lynx in the semifinals, they could very well transform from underdogs into legitimate title contenders overnight.