Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections are out, and they have the Yankees finishing with the best record in the American League for 2025.

Fresh off an AL East title and a World Series run that ended in a five-game loss to the Dodgers, the Yankees are projected for 89.7 wins—just ahead of the Orioles (89.2). PECOTA gives them a 78.2% chance to reach the postseason.

That win total is a step down from last year’s 94, but it’s still the highest in the AL. And if you’re wondering about PECOTA’s track record, it had the Yankees pegged at 94.4 wins last season. They won 94.

Yankees sit behind Dodgers, Braves, Cubs in MLB rankings

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New York’s projection ranks fourth overall, trailing the Dodgers (103.8), Braves (92.4), and Cubs (90.6). Those three clubs return largely intact. The Yankees? Not so much.

Juan Soto is gone, signing with the Mets in free agency. The Yankees didn’t stand pat, though. They signed Cody Bellinger to play center field and traded for Paul Goldschmidt to take over at first base. Max Fried was the marquee pitching addition, giving New York a top-end rotation alongside Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, and Clarke Schmidt.

How will the Yankees handle Soto’s departure?

There’s no one-for-one replacement for Soto. The Yankees are betting that Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt—along with a full season of Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells, and others—will keep the lineup productive.

But the biggest reason for optimism? That rotation. If Fried, Cole, and Rodon stay healthy, this might be the best starting five in baseball.

PECOTA doesn’t “pick” exact win totals, but its history suggests the Yankees will be right in the mix again. And after coming up short last October, the expectation in the Bronx hasn’t changed.

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